In this crazy world of getting things done, there’s one topic that can turn a friendly conversation into a full-on debate faster than you can say “scrum master.” I’m talking about how we, as a team, figure out how long a task is going to take. It’s like standing in the cereal aisle at the grocery store on a Saturday morning, staring at a wall of brightly colored boxes. Do you go for the classic, no-frills cornflakes, or do you try the wild, sugary new concoction with a name you can’t even pronounce? The choice seems simple enough, but you know that picking the wrong one could ruin your breakfast, and in our case, it could mess up a whole project.
For years, we’ve been told that there is a right way to get things done, a perfect box of cereal that fits every single person and every single morning. We’ve had big, complicated methods like Waterfall and newer ones like Scrum and SAFe telling us what to do, what to use, and what to think. They’ve all got their own ideas about how to estimate work, and they all sound so confident. But here’s the thing, real life isn’t so neat and tidy. We’ve got little projects that are “low-hanging fruit,” easy to grab and get done quickly. We’ve got super-short deadlines that make everything feel like a panic. And then we have to think about what is more important, the value we’re giving to the customer, the value we’re giving to the company, or the value we’re giving to the team that’s doing all the hard work. These things are always getting in the way, making us question if there really is a perfect box of cereal for every breakfast. It turns out, the one-size-fits-all approach is a myth, a bedtime story for people who don’t have to get their hands dirty with the day-to-day grind. What we really need is a flexible, no-judgment approach, a way to mix and match our methods to fit the team, the project, and the day.
Let’s start by opening up a few of these boxes and seeing what’s inside. First up, we have Story Points. This one is a bit like the fancy, healthy cereal with all the nuts and seeds. It sounds impressive, and it’s not like the other cereals, which is a good thing in its book. Instead of saying a task will take three days, you give it a “size,” a number that shows how complicated and how much work it is compared to other tasks. You might say a simple task is a 1, while a bigger, more complex one might be a 5 or an 8. The point is, you’re not talking about time, you’re talking about effort. This is great because it gets rid of the pressure to be a superhero. If a task is more complicated than you thought, you don’t feel bad that it took longer because you never promised a specific time in the first place. This method also forces the team to talk about the work in more detail, asking important questions like, “What makes this task a 5 instead of a 3?” The only downside is that it can feel a little bit like a guessing game at first, and it’s hard for people outside of the team, like your boss or a client, to understand what a “five-point story” really means. To them, it’s just a number, not a concrete measurement they can relate to. It’s like telling your kid you’ll give them a “large” amount of ice cream instead of a specific number of scoops. It can be a little confusing.
Next, we have Hours and Days. This is the classic, reliable box of cereal that’s been around forever, the one your grandpa probably ate for breakfast. Everybody knows what an hour is and what a day is. It’s a real, concrete measurement of time. When you say a task will take three hours, there’s no room for confusion. This is a huge win for a lot of people, especially those who need to report back to clients or other departments. It feels trustworthy, and it’s easy to create a schedule and a budget around it. But here’s the funny, and sometimes frustrating, part about using time as your estimate. We humans are not great at predicting the future. We often forget about the little things that pop up, like an unexpected bug or a question from a teammate, all those things that eat into your day. So, that three-hour task can easily become a five-hour one. Plus, when you’re given a set amount of time to complete a task, you often take all of that time, even if you could have finished it sooner. We call it Parkinson’s Law, and it’s a very real thing in the world of work. The task expands to fill the time available for its completion. This method is straightforward, but it can lead to some serious schedule delays and some very stressed-out team members.
And finally, we have Fibonacci, the mysterious, mathematical cereal. It’s a bit like a special type of Story Point, but it uses a specific sequence of numbers: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, and so on. Notice that the numbers aren’t in a simple, straight line. They jump around. There’s no 4, no 6, no 7. This isn’t just a random act of mathematical rebellion. There’s a good reason for it. This sequence forces the team to have a real conversation about tasks that are on the fence. If a team member thinks a task is a 3 and another thinks it’s a 5, they can’t just compromise on a 4. They have to talk about why they see it differently. Does one person know about a hidden complexity that the other doesn’t? This method is great for more experienced teams who are used to this kind of thinking, but for a new team, it can feel like you’re trying to solve a puzzle instead of just getting work done. It adds another layer of complexity to an already complex process.
So we’ve looked at all the different boxes of cereal on the shelf, and you might be wondering, which one should I pick? The answer is simple, you don’t just pick one, you pick the right one for the right moment. The secret ingredient to success isn’t the method itself, it’s context. It’s about understanding your team, your project, and your company, and being ready to change your breakfast order at a moment’s notice. For example, a new team that’s just starting out might be better off using a simpler method like hours or days. It helps them build trust and a shared understanding of what they can accomplish. They can see what they committed to and what they actually achieved. Once they have a solid track record and a bit more confidence, they can move to something more abstract, like story points. A mature team that has been working together for a while and understands each other’s strengths and weaknesses can use story points with ease, and they can even throw in the Fibonacci sequence to make their conversations more meaningful.
And what about the business itself? A company that is focused on quick wins and fast delivery might lean more on hours and days to keep things moving and predictable. While a company that is building a complex, long-term product that needs a lot of research and problem-solving might find that story points give them the flexibility they need. It’s all about what the team and the business value most. Is it getting a product to a customer quickly so we can see what they think? Is it building a product with the best value for our company? Is it building a product that brings the most value to our developers? The best method aligns with the business goal, which is why a blend is the best approach. It’s not about picking and choosing arbitrarily, but about intentionally selecting the right tool for the job.
You might use hours for small, well-defined tasks that everyone knows how to do. Think about fixing a small bug or making a minor change to a website. These are quick jobs that don’t need a lot of discussion. But for a big, brand new feature that no one has ever worked on before, you would want to use story points because you’re not sure how long it will take, and you need to talk through all the possible problems.
Ultimately, the best recipe for success is not a specific method but a process of communication and adjustment. The most important thing is that the team is involved in the process, not just following a command from above. You need to have regular meetings, often called retrospectives, where you talk about what’s working and what isn’t. Maybe you tried using story points for a while and realized it’s too confusing for the new people. Then you can make the decision as a team to switch to hours for a bit. This is the essence of being agile, being prepared to change and adapt. The end goal isn’t to have perfect estimations every single time. The goal is to get better at predicting, to have a good sense of how long something will take, and to keep the team informed, happy and productive.
Just like a good breakfast isn’t about eating one type of cereal for the rest of your life, a good project isn’t about using one estimation method forever. It’s about a mix that fits your taste and gets you energized for the day. So go on, experiment with your breakfast, and find the perfect mix that works for you. And when you find something that works, don’t keep it a secret!
What do you think? Have you found a blend that works for your team? Share your thoughts and stories, and remember to tag @iamcezarmoreno on social media! And if you want more ideas, tips, and tricks for living your best professional life, be sure to follow, subscribe, or join the newsletter at https://cezarmoreno.com.